[overnight quotation] the outer disk metal general rise stimulus policy spread new progress the US index continues to fall.
[macro outlook] focus on euro zone consumer confidence index in November
The dollar gave up its early gains and fell against most Gmur10 currencies. According to foreign media reports, U.S. Senate Democratic Leader Schumer said on Thursday that Republican Majority Leader McConnell had agreed to resume negotiations on novel coronavirus's rescue plan amid a surge in new cases of novel coronavirus.
The three major indexes of US stocks collectively closed higher. By the close, the S & P 500 was up 0.39% at 3581.87, the NASDAQ was up 0.87% at 11904.71, and the Dow was up 0.15% at 29483.23.
As for crude oil, WTI crude oil futures closed up 0.22% at US $41.90 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures closed up 0.18% at US $44.21 per barrel. The rise in oil prices weakened as first-time US jobless claims rose for the first time in five weeks, another obstacle to a sustained rebound in consumption. As the number of novel coronavirus infections in the United States increases and many states tighten restrictions, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) urges Americans not to travel for Thanksgiving. The market is worried that the resumption of strict epidemic prevention restrictions will lead to weak energy demand.
In terms of precious metals and commodities, COMEX December gold futures closed down 0.7%, falling for the third consecutive day to $1861.50 an ounce. Despite the explosive increase in infections in the United States, gold and silver are still unable to recover significantly due to positive vaccine research and development news, so gold is under short-term pressure.
Today's focus
[SMM International Copper BC brief Review: on the first day of trading, it is difficult to change the pressure pattern of BC copper narrowly arranging the deposit price difference between the two markets.] yesterday, the international copper futures contract was officially listed in the Shanghai International Energy Trading Center, with a listing benchmark price of 47680 yuan / ton. The main international copper contract, that is, the BC2103 contract, opened at 47500 yuan / ton in the morning market, hit a high of 47550 yuan / ton in the first minute, and then the short positions quickly fell back to around 47200 yuan / ton. Then the disk pullback slightly, and the center of gravity stabilizes at 47100 yuan / ton narrow range shock. "check the details."
[hot spot: international copper futures contract officially listed Trafigura participated in collective bidding to get the first transaction] the international copper futures contract was officially listed in Shanghai International Energy Trading Center. On the first day of international copper futures, a number of commodity traders actively participated in trading, with 47 members and 80 customers participating in collective bidding, with the first batch of 267 transactions (unilateral). According to SMM, Trafigura closed the first order at the price of 47500 yuan / ton. "check the details."
SMM analysis: with the advent of the heating season, what is the consumption of copper pipes? Copper tube companies have experienced a low ebb in the third quarter, and orders have improved since mid-late October. According to SMM understanding of copper pipe order growth, on the one hand, affected by October home appliance industry order growth, heating season is approaching, the air conditioning sector will usher in the peak season of the industry, domestic air conditioning enterprises in order to meet the end of the year consumption season, production gradually accelerated, the demand for copper pipe growth; on the other hand, exports also showed a sustained recovery, copper pipe enterprises feedback since October, downstream export orders showed a small increase. In addition, the company reported that orders for alloy copper tubes, marine copper tubes and other plates also remained stable. "check the details."
SMM analysis: the consumption of aluminum cable is weak. Why is the processing fee of aluminum rod rising against the trend recently? Generally speaking, the processing fee of aluminum rod is related to its own supply and demand and aluminum base price. According to SMM research, the base price of aluminum rose sharply in October, which forced the processing fee of aluminum rod into the low shock range in that month. During this period, the processing fee of aluminum rod in Shandong area was close to the flat state, and the processing fee of aluminum rod in Inner Mongolia was greatly discounted. After entering November, although aluminum prices continued to rise and the consumption of downstream aluminum cable factories was weak, aluminum rod processing fees in the northern region began to show a counter-trend upward trend. "check the details.
[national Aluminum Bar inventory Weekly Review: the inventory of aluminum bars decreased by 12500 tons to 75400 tons compared with last Friday.] the inventory of aluminum bars decreased by 12500 tons to 75400 tons compared with last Friday. Inventory decreased in Foshan, Changzhou and Nanchang, with the largest decline in Foshan, slightly increased inventory in Wuxi and little change in Huzhou inventory.
[SMM data: Gongyi arrives goods increase electrolytic aluminum social inventory continues to drop 14000 tons to 615000 tons compared with last Thursday] November 19, Gongyi arrived more goods, a number of major consumer areas to maintain efforts to go to the warehouse, SMM statistics domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory of 615000 tons, down 14000 tons from the previous Thursday. "check the details.
[SMM survey and analysis: what is the impact of recycled lead cutting production and adding new enterprises? (with the latest reduction and shutdown of recycled lead)] recently, Henan and Hebei have issued weather pollution warnings one after another. This week, a blizzard broke out in Inner Mongolia, resulting in limited capacity release of some recycled lead smelting enterprises. According to SMM research, with the arrival of heavy pollution weather, recycled lead smelting enterprises in Henan Province and Hebei Province have cut production and stopped production due to environmental control. With the lifting of the weather pollution warning in Henan yesterday, some refineries have resumed normal production, but some enterprises need to stop production until the end of the year due to seasonal production restrictions. Overall, in terms of environmental protection and production restrictions, the impact of large-scale recycled lead smelting enterprises with a better level of environmental protection is far less than that of small and medium-sized smelters. At the same time, the capacity release of crude lead is mostly limited, and the impact of refined lead production is relatively small. Therefore, the current environmental measures to limit production have little impact on the overall supply of lead ingots.
[SMM survey: investigation of SMM domestic zinc concentrate enterprises] as of January-October this year, the output of SMM zinc concentrate sample enterprises decreased by 86100 tons compared with the same period last year. "check the details.
[SMM survey: continuous investigation on the impact of environmental inspection in galvanizing enterprises] with the advent of the heating season, the impact of air pollution in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas continued in the first half of the week, and polluting enterprises in some areas continued to suspend and limit production, and with the improvement of air quality, the environmental warning was gradually lifted. This week, SMM conducted an environmental research on the impact of this situation on galvanizing enterprises. "check the details."
In terms of fundamentals, (VZI), Vedanta Zinc International, a subsidiary of Vedanta, has reportedly suspended all mining activities at its Gamsberg zinc mine in South Africa, which will produce 250000 tons of zinc concentrate per year. The mine shutdown aggravates the tight supply at the mine end, the short money leaves the market, and pays close attention to the progress of the South African mine story in the short term. At the smelting end, the maintenance of smelters is increasing at present, and there are also plans for maintenance and production reduction in some smelters in December. Zinc downstream consumption is still no bright performance, orders are weaker than the previous month. Overall, under the support of tight logic on the supply side, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. "check the details."
[SMM analysis: supply and demand are not strong. Tin Chong falls back] at present, the market is intertwined, tin resources are tight in supply and processing fees are low, which strongly supports the price of tin ingots in smelters and even the spot discount in the market; on the other hand, sufficient supply in the market and less powerful downstream consumption make resistance above tin prices still exist. "check the details." the price of tin ingots in the smelter is strongly supported by the price of tin ingots, and even the price of tin ingots rises and discounts on the spot in the market.
[SMM analysis: Tangshan relieves heavy pollution weather emergency response, blast furnace operating rate has stopped falling and increasing] according to SMM research, the blast furnace operating rate counted by SMM on November 19th was 88.4%, up 0.1% from last week and 0.41% lower than the same period last year. This week, due to the influence of cold air, the pollution process was basically over. Tangshan decided to lift the secondary emergency response of the heavy pollution weather in the whole city, leading to a slight rebound in the operating rate of blast furnace. "check the details.
SMM Hot Volume inventory: can the high price be better than the cold? The total inventory of hot-rolled coil this week is 3.4485 million tons, compared with last week-109800 tons, month-on-month-3.08%, year-on-year + 32.93%. Total hot rolling inventory continued to decline this week, but in view of the increase in inspection and repair output of steel mills this week and a slight increase in output, the rate of decline in total inventory slowed slightly. "check the details.
[Shagang Forecast SMM Forecast: the ex-factory price of rebar in Shagang is expected to increase by 50-100 yuan / ton in late November] it is expected that the ex-factory price of rebar in Shagang will increase by 50-100 yuan / ton in late November, that is, the third-grade large snail (ex-factory price 4300-4350 yuan / ton), East China kuti cost 4250-4300 yuan / ton, factory lift cost 4200-4250 yuan / ton. "check the details.
[thread inventory report for the third week of November: prices are stuck again-upward pressure, downside support] as of November 19, the national total inventory of building materials was 6.8362 million tons, with a month-on-month ratio of-9.5%, + 47.5% compared with the same period last year. The fundamental reason is that with the cold weather, demand in Northeast China has gradually weakened, and some other markets, such as Hubei, also have "intermittent" precipitation, affecting the release of some terminal demand.
[19 thread spot review: snail high shock, spot price rise more than] yesterday snail maintained high shock, spot market prices followed by an increase of 10-30 yuan / ton. In terms of transaction, the terminal is stable to pick up the goods, and the overall merchant shipping status can still be "checked for details under the support of steel."
Important news of metals and industry
[what impact will Biden have on the mining and metal industries when he is elected president? On the first day of the Biden administration, he is expected to take immediate action to set new restrictions on methane pollution and existing oil and gas operations, set stringent fuel economy standards, and move heavy and medium-sized vehicles towards zero emissions. Biden's climate plan is expected to promote the development of lithium and battery raw material supply chains, when capital markets will have stronger support for clean energy projects and mining projects in line with climate change policies. In addition to Biden's climate improvement goals, he also promised to add 10 million high-paying middle-class union jobs, which will be achieved through infrastructure legislation. Strong infrastructure development projects usually trigger demand for commodities, including copper, iron and steel.
[global primary aluminum market oversupply 1.603 million tons from January to September of WBMS:2020] according to a report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics ((WBMS)) on Wednesday, the global primary aluminum market has an oversupply of 1.603 million tons from January to September 2020 and 480000 tons for the whole of 2019. The demand for primary aluminum from January to September was 48.26 million tons, an increase of 417000 tons over the same period in 2019. Demand is measured on an apparent basis, and the full impact of the national blockade imposed to contain the COVID-19 epidemic may not be fully reflected in trade statistics.
[SMM topic: lead and Zinc results in the first three quarters announced what happened to Luoping Zinc Power? Recently, many lead and zinc listed companies have disclosed their third-quarter results. In terms of lead, according to the data of four SMM statistics, the net profit of most lead-listed companies increased in the first three quarters compared with the same period last year. For example, the net profit in the first three quarters of Yuguang Gold and lead increased by 205.61% compared with the same period last year, but the net profit of Shengyang shares in the first three quarters decreased by 31.1%. In terms of zinc, the performance of most enterprises is poor. For example, Luoping Zinc Power's net profit in the first three quarters decreased by 3202.92% compared with the same period last year, and HTC's net profit in the first three quarters decreased by 509.33%. But Zijin Mining's net profit in the first three quarters increased by 52.12% compared with the same period last year. "check the details.
[Vedanta suspends 250000 tons of zinc concentrate from South Africa's Gamsberg zinc mine] it is reported that Vedanta's subsidiary, Vedanta Zinc International, (VZI), has suspended all mining activities at its Gamsberg zinc mine in South Africa. Mainly because Vedanta (Vedanta) trapped 10 workers due to the accident, eight workers have been rescued and are still searching for two miners whose whereabouts are unknown. The Gamsberg mine opened in early 2019. VZI is the largest owner, with 69.6 per cent of the shares, while Exxaro Resources has 24.4 per cent. The remaining 6% is held by the employee stock ownership plan. Gamsberg will produce 250000 tons of zinc concentrate per year.
According to reports, a mid-year report by Forbes (Forbes) shows that as demand for steel and batteries increases, the nickel boom will resume, and clear signs of nickel brewing can be found in increasing metal trading. New Century Zinc, a small Australian mining company, made a risky move to acquire the lossmaking Goro project in New Caledonia on the Pacific island from Vale, Brazil's largest mining company. Not long ago, speculators were very active in nickel because they thought the demand of battery makers could quickly match that of stainless steel manufacturers, which was postponed because of the collapse in (EV) demand for electric vehicles. However, the epidemic and the resulting economic downturn and uncertainty have led to a decline in consumer confidence, which has had a negative impact on electric vehicle orders in the short term. Battery chemistry is shifting to high-nickel chemistry, and with the development of the required technology, high-nickel chemistry will provide a wider driving range and reduce the demand for cobalt per battery. This type of battery offers a higher density, fuelling a boom in the development of positive electrodes containing eight parts of nickel, one part of cobalt and one part of manganese, while faster growth has also been driven by soaring cobalt prices in 2017 and early 2018.
[Hegang Group's highest strength non-quenched and tempered wear-resistant steel promotes dump truck lightweight] A few days ago, 1500MPa tensile strength non-quenched and tempered wear-resistant steel NM450TP, developed and produced by Hegang Group, was processed into a dump truck body by a well-known heavy truck manufacturing enterprise in China. Customer feedback shape quality and Brinell hardness all meet the demand, and an additional order of 300t was added. NM450TP is the highest strength non-quenched and tempered wear-resistant steel currently used in China. Compared with low-alloy high-strength steel, under the same conditions, the overall weight of the car can be reduced by 1x3, the service life can be increased by 2.5 times, and the price is 1000 yuan / ton higher than that of ordinary hot-rolled products. At the same time, the product also has the advantages of short technological process, low manufacturing cost, fast delivery speed and so on.
Fundamentals strong iron ore futures hit a 3-month high! Iron ore futures jumped to a more than three-month high within days on concerns about Australian iron ore supply and optimism about demand driven by rising steel prices downstream. At present, the rigid demand of steel mills is stable, and the demand for replenishment continues to be realized. The operating rate remains high, and the demand for raw materials such as iron ore continues to be strong in the short term.
Recently, Guangzhou Guangsheng Special Steel Co., Ltd. sent a good news to Shougang shares that the marble row saw steel jointly developed by both sides has been successfully applied in batches. Shougang's technical control, production capacity and user services are recognized and thanked. Marble row sawing steel is the pearl of sawing tool steel. Jazz White, Hermes Grey, Alpine Green. These exquisite marble slabs, which are fascinating in the magnificent interior decoration, must be cut exactly by side-by-side rows of sawed steel, which has long been monopolized by steelmakers in advanced countries such as Europe. The data used by the end customers show that the performance of Shougang joint-stock row sawing steel is excellent in all aspects, the strip breaking rate in the marble sawing process is far lower than the industry requirements of 5%, and the performance reaches or even exceeds that of foreign products, which can completely replace imports.
[Ministry of Commerce responded: whether China's import tariffs and restrictions on Australia will be adjusted after the signing of RCEP] Gao Feng said that the RCEP Agreement is a regional free trade agreement jointly reached by 15 members, and all parties have made systematic arrangements on such issues as tariff concessions for trade in goods. After the entry into force of the RCEP Agreement, China will make joint efforts with all members to implement and implement the relevant provisions of the Agreement.
[Alphamin: expects tin production to increase in the fourth quarter to reach 12000 tons of refined tin within two years.] Alphamin's Bisie mine project increased tin sales by more than 3 per cent in the third quarter of 2020. Although Bisie's production has declined slightly due to the low average tin grade, the company is successfully achieving its 2020 target of 10000 tons of tin concentrate. The factory recovery rate increased from 69% to 71% in the quarter, and the throughput increased from 91928 tons to 96086 tons. Although tin production was 2563 tons, down 6% from the previous quarter, Alphamin believes tin production will increase again in the fourth quarter, and the company aims to produce between 2600 and 2800 tons of tin concentrate by the last quarter of 2020. Alphamin's two-year goal is to produce 12000 tons of tin a year, which is within its capacity.
[Shengxin Lithium can increase its capital by 330 million to Shengtun Lithium Industry to promote the development of Lithium Salt Business] on the evening of November 17th, Shengxin Lithium Energy announced that the company increased its capital by RMB 330 million to Sichuan Shengtun Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Shengtun Lithium Industry"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company. After the completion of this capital increase, the registered capital of Shengtun Lithium Industry has increased from 220 million yuan to 550 million yuan. Shengxin LiNeng said that the capital increase of Shengtun Lithium Industry, a wholly-owned subsidiary, is based on the daily business development needs of Shengtun Lithium Industry, which is conducive to promoting the development of the company's lithium salt business.
Macro focus
Wang Shouwen, Vice Minister of Commerce and Deputy Representative of International Trade negotiations Wang Shouwen, Vice Minister of Commerce and Deputy Representative of International Trade negotiations, said on the 19th that through the joint efforts of all parties, (APEC) has formulated a vision of cooperation after 2020, which will be submitted to the informal meeting of APEC leaders for approval. Under the background of the hindrance of globalization in recent years, the prospect of APEC cooperation is still promising.
[Ministry of Finance successfully issued 4 billion euros of sovereign bonds] on November 18, the Ministry of Finance of the people's Republic of China successfully issued 4 billion ou yuan of sovereign bonds. Among them, 5-year 750 million ou yuan, issue rate of return is-0.152%; 10-year 2 billion ou yuan, issue rate of return is 0.318%; 15-year 1.25 billion ou yuan, issue rate of return is 0.664%. This bond issue is the second year in a row after the resumption of euro sovereign bond issuance in 2019, and has achieved the lowest yield of sovereign bond issuance outside China so far. Among them, the five-year issue is issued at a premium with a coupon of 0%, with a negative interest rate for the first time.
[Ministry of Commerce: speed up negotiations on the China-Japan-ROK Free Trade Agreement and strive to achieve substantive results as soon as possible] the Ministry of Commerce said that the negotiations on the China-Japan-ROK free trade zone were launched in November 2012 and 16 rounds have been held so far. The three sides had an in-depth exchange of views on trade in goods, trade in services, investment and rules, and made positive progress. The signing of RCEP has created good conditions for promoting the acceleration of free trade agreement negotiations between China, Japan and South Korea. China is willing to work with Japan and South Korea to actively overcome the impact of the epidemic, make full use of existing resources, maintain consultations and exchanges through video conferences, telephone conferences and other forms, speed up negotiations on a free trade agreement between China, Japan and South Korea, and strive to achieve substantive results as soon as possible, further raise the level of market access and rules, and build a "RCEP+" free trade agreement.
[Deutsche Bank: the issuance of euro sovereign bonds by the Chinese Ministry of Finance has scarce value] Today, China's Ministry of Finance successfully issued 4 billion ou yuan of sovereign bonds. Fang Zhongrui, head of China debt capital markets at Deutsche Bank, said that although there are many volatile factors in the market this year, the Ministry of Finance still issues euro sovereign bonds again at the end of the year, reflecting the importance it attaches to the European market. In the longer term, this suggests that global investors still have plenty of room to increase their holdings of Chinese assets, and there is no doubt that such bonds are of scarce value.
Terminal information
Recently, in a conference call after the release of Weilai's third quarter results, Li Bin, founder, chairman and CEO of Weilai, mentioned that Weilai is "entering the car market." in addition to the immediate release of a car, the new model it is developing is also a car product, thus improving the product layout of Weilai. Li Bin mentioned: "as for next year's research and development, from the perspective of models, we all know that we now have three mass production models of SUV, and then we will immediately release a car product. The first car of the NT2.0 platform is a car. We are now entering the car market, and the second new car under development is also a car product, so you can imagine that after the next two new cars are released. Our entire product layout should be relatively complete.
[CFM: 's third-quarter NAND revenue remains seventh, capacity climbing accelerates] according to the latest research from China's flash memory market (CFM), after the rapid growth in the second quarter, the server market demand cooled in the third quarter, but driven by the resumption of demand growth in the mobile market, global NAND Flash sales revenue rose 0.8% to 14.6 billion US dollars in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter. Among them, Samsung NAND Flash ranked first with revenue of US $4.85 billion and market share of 33.3%. Affected by M & A Lite-On, Kioxia's revenue in the third quarter reached a two-year quarterly high, with an increase of 25.2% to US $3.11 billion and a substantial increase in market share to 21.4%. Western Digital Flash revenue decreased 7.1% to US $2.08 billion, ranking third. SK Hynix Flash revenue fell 3.2% to $1.65 billion from the previous month, ranking fourth; Micron Flash revenue decreased by 7% to US $1.51 billion, with a share of 10.3%, ranking fifth; Intel's Flash revenue plunged 30.5% from the previous month to sixth place due to the decline in data center demand.
[Tesla's largest V3 supercharging station in North China landed in Wangjing, Beijing] on the 17th, Tesla Beijing Wangjing Posco Center V3 supercharging station officially opened. The supercharging station is the largest V3 supercharging station in North China, with a total of 21 V3 supercharging piles (hereinafter referred to as supercharging piles). Tesla said that in the coming period of time, the Wangjing Tesla Center will also open, when Wangjing area will form a set of consultation, test ride, test drive, delivery, after-sales and other systematic services. Compared with V2 overcharged pile, V3 overcharged pile has faster charging speed and lighter liquid-cooled charging line. Take the Model 3 as an example, at peak power, the charge can travel about 250km in 15 minutes. At present, Tesla has set up a total of 45 super charging stations and 34 destination charging stations in Beijing, covering the urban core and surrounding popular self-driving routes.
[Tesla the world's largest charging station appears in the charging pile industry to meet the explosion period.] Tesla recently opened the world's largest super charging station in California, USA, with a total of 56 super charging stakes. It is currently the largest number of charging piles in a single charging station. Earlier, Tesla China said it expected to build nearly 650 supercharging stations and more than 2000 destination charging piles, covering more than 2000 cities, by the end of 2020. At the same time, the German government announced after closed-door talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel with several federal state governors and aviation industry representatives that 25% of Germany's gas stations may achieve the goal of fast charging electric vehicles by 2022. It is planned to increase this proportion to at least 50% by the end of 2024 and at least 75% by the end of 2026.
![Precious Metals Futures Remain in the Doldrums, Spot Silver Market Transactions Have Recovered Somewhat [SMM Daily Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/VCNvX20251217171735.jpeg)
![Precious metals are under short-term pressure; platinum spot premiums remain steady with weak trading [SMM Daily Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/JMPtY20251217171734.jpeg)
